Ukraine’s energy system faces significant risks ahead of the 2026-27 winter heating season, as increasingly sophisticated Russian drone attacks threaten critical infrastructure despite efforts to strengthen electricity generation, storage and strategic reserves, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The report assesses Ukraine’s energy security and preparedness as the country enters its fifth winter since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

It warns that electricity shortages are likely in the coming months, with their severity depending on the intensity of attacks and prevailing weather conditions.

Ukraine has made progress over the past year in strengthening its energy infrastructure, including investing in air defences and passive protection measures such as anti-drone netting around critical facilities.

The country has also added approximately 400 megawatts (MW) of distributed gas-fired generation, alongside new wind capacity and battery storage, while establishing strategic reserves of energy equipment.

The IEA highlights the importance of decentralised energy resources, noting that smaller and more widely distributed generation facilities are harder for drones to target than large power plants.

Lessons from last winter, when widespread damage to power stations and electricity networks caused prolonged outages during colder-than-average conditions, demonstrate the importance of distributed generation and electricity imports in maintaining supply.

However, the report finds that neither resource was fully utilised.

Bringing newly delivered distributed generation units into operation could take longer than anticipated, while electricity market restrictions, including price caps, have sometimes limited imports.

Grid bottlenecks have also prevented imported electricity from reaching eastern parts of the country, leaving these regions particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions.

Meanwhile, Russia has intensified attacks on energy infrastructure and introduced faster, jet-powered drones that are more difficult to intercept. Recent strikes have damaged electricity generation facilities, transmission networks, gas installations and oil infrastructure ahead of the winter season.

The IEA identifies several immediate measures that could help Ukraine reduce the risk of shortages by making better use of existing resources.

Connecting equipment already delivered to the country could add generation capacity within weeks, while greater use of battery storage and consumer demand management could reduce pressure during evening peak periods.

District heating infrastructure is another major concern.

More than 30 per cent of Ukrainian households depend on district heating, which has faced increasingly heavy attacks over the past two winters. When central heating systems fail, households often turn to electric heaters, increasing electricity consumption at a time when supply is already constrained.

The report highlights decentralised heating as an important resilience measure. Deploying more smaller-scale cogeneration units and modular boiler houses connected to district heating networks has helped some communities maintain heat supplies despite repeated attacks.

Looking beyond the immediate winter, the IEA calls for Ukraine and its international partners to move away from short-term emergency responses towards longer-term energy resilience planning.

With critical energy equipment requiring six to nine months for delivery, procurement for the 2027-28 winter heating season should begin immediately, the report recommends.

Coordinated purchasing, strategic equipment reserves and financing arrangements that cover both equipment delivery and installation could accelerate infrastructure recovery and improve preparedness for future attacks.

The report concludes that strengthening decentralised energy supply, improving electricity imports, protecting heating infrastructure and accelerating equipment procurement will be essential to maintaining Ukraine’s energy security through the coming winters. -OGN/TradeArabia News Service