The global retail media market continues to grow and evolve, with ad investment projected to surpass $200 billion this year and reach $223 billion by 2027, per WARC Media. However, growth is slowing towards single digits, and there are dangers of ‘enshittifying’ the shopper experience, which in turn may have a negative impact on campaign effectiveness, as retail media networks look to meet ambitious targets.
On course to reach $200.4 billion in 2026, worldwide retail media investment is forecast to grow by 11.5% year-on-year in 2027 to $223.4 billion, according to WARC Media’s latest forecasts. By then, retail media will account for 15.2% of total worldwide ad investment.
However, growth is slowing towards single digits. When excluding industry leader Amazon, the global retail media market is set to dip to 9.8% in 2027 – the lowest year-on-year rate of growth since WARC Media began monitoring spend.
Alex Brownsell, Head of Content, WARC Media, said: "The retail media landscape is maturing and consolidating, forcing marketers to rethink their approach. While retail media excels at converting existing demand, it underperforms on long-term brand building. Retailers face a delicate balancing act: growing ad revenue to boost margins without overwhelming shoppers with too many ad interruptions that compromise both shopper experience and campaign effectiveness. Success now depends on smart integration with other channels and finding the optimal path to sustainable results."
The Future of Commerce Media 2026 examines key trends and analyses fresh research about the intersection of commerce and advertising.
While European retail media spend growth decelerates to single digits, the US market shows stronger momentum. WARC Media forecasts US retail media network spending will grow 13.6% in 2028 to reach $74.9 billion.
But concentration of ad spend remains a challenge. In 2025, Amazon captured 78.0% of all US retail media expenditure, with Walmart taking 7.5%, leaving just 14.5% for all other networks combined, according to Walrus Intelligence. In Europe, more than two-thirds of overall retail media spend went to Amazon in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK.
