The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) expects global oil demand to continue expanding this year and the next, supported by resilient economic growth, rising mobility and increased industrial activity across major emerging economies.
In its June Monthly Oil Market Report, OPEC forecast global oil demand to grow by 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year in 2026, with demand accelerating to 1.7 mb/d in 2027. The 2027 outlook was revised upward by about 200,000 barrels per day from the previous month's assessment, reflecting improving economic prospects and stronger consumption trends.
The producer group said global economic growth is expected to remain healthy at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, providing a solid foundation for oil demand expansion. Strong growth in emerging Asian economies, particularly China and India, is expected to remain a key driver of consumption.
"The global economic performance has remained resilient so far this year," OPEC said, noting that growth in China and India has been supported by investments linked to artificial intelligence, steady international trade and fiscal measures that have helped offset higher energy costs.
Demand growth in 2026 is expected to be led by non-OECD countries, which are forecast to account for around 900,000 barrels per day of the increase, while OECD economies are expected to contribute about 100,000 barrels per day.
China and other Asian economies are projected to be the primary engines of oil demand growth in the developing world, with India providing additional support. OPEC said rising air travel, road transportation and improving manufacturing activity would underpin consumption, particularly for gasoline, jet fuel and diesel.
In the OECD, the United States is expected to remain the main source of demand growth. Consumption of jet fuel and gasoline is projected to benefit from robust air travel and seasonal driving activity, although diesel demand may remain subdued due to softer manufacturing activity.
For 2027, OPEC expects demand growth to strengthen further, with non-OECD economies accounting for about 1.5 mb/d of the projected increase, while OECD countries are forecast to add 200,000 barrels per day.
OPEC maintained its forecasts for major economies, including growth of 2.2% for the United States in 2026, 4.6% for China and 6.6% for India. The group said the combination of a strong first half of 2026 and an anticipated acceleration in economic activity later in the year supports its positive outlook for both global growth and oil demand.
The report also highlighted the continued importance of mobility and industrial activity in shaping energy consumption trends, with aviation, road transport and manufacturing expected to remain key contributors to oil demand growth over the forecast period.
Meanwhile, OPEC noted that global oil prices showed mixed trends in May. The OPEC Reference Basket rose by $5.49 per barrel month-on-month to average $114.55 per barrel, while Brent crude averaged $103.71 per barrel. The organization said hedge funds and other money managers reduced their long positions in Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures during the month, reflecting expectations of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. - TradeArabia News Service
