Barclays, a British financial services company, has revised its Brent price forecasts in the second half (H2) of 2018 and 2019 to $73 and $71, respectively, due to a lower supply estimate for Libya and Iran.

Yet bulls ought to beware of Saudi Arabia’s and Russia’s clear willingness to cap the upside in prices, the bank said in its Commodities Research report.

Saudi Arabia is likely to send more exports to the US, where weekly inventories affect market sentiment, in the coming months, it said.

This would be a reversal of Saudi Arabia’s strategy to remove barrels from the US market in H1 2017, and such a strategy would likely weaken the strong WTI backwardation. Bulls ought not discount Saudi Arabia’s ability and willingness to protect the consumer from $80+ prices, according to Barclays.

Russia has the capacity to raise output at least 200-300 kb/d more than Barclays estimate next year, it noted. – TradeArabia News Service