The air cargo sector results in May confirm a downward growth trend noticed since the start of this year. But growth it is nonetheless, although less than in 2017, according to a report.

The worldwide air cargo yield went down to a level of $1.88 in May, 3 per cent below April, but still 14 per cent higher than in May 2017. Measured in euros, the yield increased by 1 per cent month-over-month (MoM), while the year-over-year (YoY) increase was 7 per cent, added the report by WorldACD Market Data.

Year-over-year, air cargo volume increased by 2.6 per cent worldwide, yield measured in euros by 7.1 per cent and measured in USD by 14.4 per cent. For January through May, the growth was 4.3 per cent.
 
The origins Chile (+58 per cent), Japan (+18 per cent), Canada (+17 per cent), and the US (+5.8 per cent) easily outperformed many other countries. But the growth from the Americas came at a price: YoY USD-yield improvements in the Americas were well below 10 per cent, much lower than elsewhere in the world.

The origins India, Russia and Western Europe all showed negative YoY growth in May. As in previous months, long haul traffic increased more than short haul (3.0 per cent growth in Direct Ton Kilometers, DTKs, vs. 2.6 per cent in weight), whilst specific cargo categories again outpaced general cargo (5.5 per cent vs 1.5 per cent growth).
 
Yet, the fear of growing protectionism is real, and that fear may well play a role in a shift away from consumption. Will the whole world suffer? To what extent will some regions feel the heat of the trade war (mongering) more than others? Impossible to tell, so let us stick to what we know and see how a number of large economies performed lately.
 
For a number of countries, we looked at GDP-developments, as reported by The Economist in its latest issue, relative to air cargo growth. Until 2009, the conventional wisdom was that air cargo roughly grew at twice the rate of GDP-growth. Since the crisis this ratio first dropped from 2:1 to 1:1 and then climbed again gradually.

Neither is it possible to assume that growth in any geographical area will 'automatically' benefit the carriers based in that area.

The African carrier group was the only one improving its (small) market share in all regions. So did carriers from Asia Pacific, except in their home area. Carriers from the Americas increased their market share in three regions, but lost share in both North and South America. The group of Middle Eastern carriers lost share in three regions, including their home area, and gained in Europe and Latin America.

In other words, the growth in traffic from all areas except Africa, benefited the group of 'non-home carriers' more than the group of 'home carriers'. – TradeArabia News Service