Africa is on track to install a record 17 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity in 2026, with around three-quarters expected to come from distributed systems that remain underrepresented in official statistics, according to analysis by Ember published in October.

Solar installations are forecast to rise about 45 per cent year on year, following increases of 51 per cent in 2025 and 25 per cent in 2024.

Ember expects 36 of Africa’s 54 countries to record their highest annual solar additions this year.

South Africa’s share of the continent’s installations is projected to fall below 20 per cent for the first time since 2019, as solar deployment accelerates across other major markets.

Ember estimates six countries will each add at least 1 GW in 2026: South Africa at 3.3 GW, Egypt at 2 GW, Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) at 1.7 GW each, Algeria at 1.4 GW and Morocco at 1 GW.

Growth is particularly rapid in several emerging markets. Ember estimates year-on-year increases of more than 100 per cent in 19 countries, including 544 per cent in the DRC, 282 per cent in Zimbabwe, 176 per cent in Egypt and 117 per cent in Zambia.

The expansion reflects rising deployment of commercial rooftop systems, estate projects and solar-plus-storage facilities, in addition to large utility-scale projects.

As a result, customs data and installer surveys can provide a more complete picture of deployment than some national capacity registers.

Africa’s broader electricity-access efforts are also progressing. In June 2026, the World Bank Group and African Development Bank said Mission 300 had connected more than 50 million people across 40 countries since July 2023.

Tanzania, Nigeria and Ethiopia were among the leading beneficiaries, while Kenya connected about two million people and Malawi around 1.9 million.

Despite the progress, access targets remain challenging.

The International Energy Agency has estimated that universal electricity access in Africa requires around $15 billion annually, compared with less than $2.5 billion committed for new connections in sub-Saharan Africa in 2023.

Kowatek Solar said the Ember figures reflect growing Nigerian demand for purpose-built solar-and-storage systems as businesses increasingly move away from emergency generators. -OGN/TradeArabia News Service