Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed to a near standstill over the weekend following attacks on tankers, underscoring the growing risks to one of the world's most important energy routes, even as oil prices remained relatively steady amid the lack of progress in US-Iran peace talks.
Only five commodity vessels were recorded transiting the strategic waterway on Saturday and none on Sunday, according to ship-tracking data from Kpler, compared with 31 commodity vessels during the previous weekend. The sharp decline followed attacks on vessels operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), raising fresh concerns among shipowners over the safety of navigating the strait.
The limited traffic that was recorded also highlighted the increasingly difficult conditions facing shipping. Among the vessels entering the strait on Saturday was an empty very large crude carrier whose automatic identification system was switched off, while an Indian-flagged very large gas carrier used a route through Iranian waters. A small tanker carrying Iranian fuel oil was also tracked exiting the waterway.
The weekend figures represent a dramatic change from normal traffic levels. Before the war, more than 130 vessels a day were reported to cross the strait, which handles roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG shipments.
The slowdown came after the UAE said vessels operated by ADNOC had been attacked while transiting the waterway. The incidents have heightened concerns that commercial shipping could become increasingly reluctant to use the strait even where passage remains technically possible.
No breakthrough in US-Iran talks
The shipping disruption is occurring against a diplomatic backdrop that offers little immediate prospect of a return to normal traffic.
US-Iran talks aimed at resolving the conflict and securing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have stalled, with Tehran insisting that Washington meet its conditions before unrestricted shipping can resume. Iran has also disputed the US characterisation of the situation and has maintained that any agreement on navigation must be linked to broader issues arising from the conflict.
Washington, meanwhile, has signalled that it is prepared for a prolonged confrontation. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said the United States could maintain its naval blockade of Iran indefinitely, while the Trump administration has threatened further economic pressure on Tehran.
The conflicting positions have left the immediate future of the strait uncertain. There is no clear indication that normal commercial traffic will resume soon, while the continuing attacks are making even vessels willing to transit the waterway increasingly cautious.
Bab el-Mandeb traffic also slows
The disruption is not confined to Hormuz.
At the Bab el-Mandeb, the southern gateway to the Red Sea, Kpler recorded 49 weekend transits by commodity vessels, down from 55 the previous weekend. No Saudi oil shipments were tracked through the waterway.
The decline follows a Houthi declaration of a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, adding another layer of risk to energy and commercial shipping in the region.
The combination of disruptions at both ends of the Gulf-Red Sea shipping network is raising concerns over longer voyages, higher insurance costs and increased pressure on alternative routes.
Oil market surprisingly restrained
Despite the dramatic fall in shipping through Hormuz, oil prices were relatively stable in early Asian trading on Monday.
Brent crude futures were around $88.72 a barrel, up about 0.2%, while US West Texas Intermediate was around $82.35, down marginally.
The muted response is notable given the scale of the disruption. The market appears to be balancing the geopolitical threat against concerns over global demand, available inventories and the possibility that some supplies can continue to move through alternative routes or by other means. Recent oil-market analysis has pointed to weaker demand and relatively ample inventories as factors limiting the immediate price response to the disruption.
