Iran and Oman have signalled that they are close to reaching an agreement on arrangements for commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, raising hopes of a breakthrough in the crisis that has disrupted one of the world's most important energy corridors.
But Tehran has simultaneously made clear that an agreement with Oman would not by itself reopen the strait, placing the ultimate decision on a much broader understanding with the United States.
The hardening of Iran's position came as the United Arab Emirates accused Iran of launching a missile attack on a vessel linked to state oil company ADNOC while it was transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, underscoring the risks facing shipping even as diplomatic efforts gather pace. The UAE described the attack as an act of "piracy" and called for an immediate end to attacks on commercial vessels.
The developments have produced a contradictory picture: diplomatic channels appear to be moving towards a possible arrangement on shipping, while attacks on vessels continue and Iran insists that the wider political conditions for reopening the waterway have yet to be met.
Iran: Oman deal is not enough
Iran's position was reinforced by its Revolutionary Guards, which said reopening the Strait of Hormuz does not depend on the negotiations with Oman but on whether Washington agrees to Iranian conditions.
Iranian officials have said those conditions include an end to the war, the withdrawal of US forces and an end to what Tehran describes as American aggression. Tehran has also demanded sanctions relief and financial compensation or reparations for the damage caused by the conflict.
Reuters reported that Iran's foreign minister described a temporary shipping route being discussed with Oman, but stressed that reopening the waterway would depend on US concessions including compensation, sanctions relief and an end to military action against Iran and its allies.
That distinction is crucial.
An Iran-Oman agreement could establish a mechanism for ships to move through the strait, potentially including rules governing access and navigation. But Tehran is now making clear that the mechanism would operate within the larger framework of the war and would not amount to an unconditional reopening.
The Revolutionary Guards' intervention also indicates that any diplomatic understanding reached through Oman will ultimately have to be acceptable to Iran's security establishment.
Oman urges restraint
Oman, which has long played the role of intermediary between Iran and Western powers, has described its discussions with Tehran on shipping as positive and constructive.
But Muscat has simultaneously warned that continuing attacks on vessels could undermine the progress made in the negotiations.
Oman's position reflects the central difficulty facing the talks: an agreement on paper will have little practical value unless commercial shipping companies believe the waterway is safe enough to use.
The proposed arrangements are also complicated by disagreements over who would control traffic and whether ships would have to pay fees for passage. Reuters reported earlier that proposals under discussion could give Iran a role in controlling vessels entering the Gulf, while Tehran has sought fees equivalent to 5% to 7% of cargo value. Oman has considered a lower figure, while Washington has opposed the imposition of such charges. Shipping and insurance interests have warned that the proposed system could create legal and financial complications.
For the shipping industry, therefore, the test will not be simply whether Iran and Oman announce an agreement. It will be whether vessels can actually resume regular passage, whether insurers are willing to provide cover and whether the risk of seizure or attack falls sharply.
UAE vessel attack raises stakes
The latest maritime incident threatens to complicate those efforts. The UAE said an Iranian missile struck an ADNOC-linked vessel as it passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The vessel was not identified publicly and authorities did not immediately disclose its cargo or the extent of any damage. No injuries were reported in the incident.
ADNOC said Friday that its shipping operations had been hit by repeated missile and drone attacks since the beginning of the conflict, reporting 15 attacks on its vessels, with one crew member killed and 20 injured.
The latest incident is particularly sensitive because it came as Iran and Oman were signalling progress towards a shipping arrangement.
Meanwhile a CNN report cited sources as saying Gen Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has privately argued that the United States needs to find an "off-ramp" from the conflict because the military options available for further escalation could backfire. Sources also said Caine believes air power alone is unlikely to accomplish President Donald Trump's stated objectives. The chairman has reportedly discussed the risks with other senior officials, including CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance.
The concern reflects a fundamental dilemma for Washington.
Mojtaba Khamenei reappears — but questions remain
Adding another layer of uncertainty, Iranian state media has released an undated video of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has remained largely absent from public view since succeeding his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, earlier this year.
The footage has not been independently dated, and its release has not been accompanied by detailed information about when or where it was recorded.
Khamenei's prolonged absence has generated persistent speculation about his health and whereabouts. Earlier in the year, Iranian state television broadcast messages attributed to him without showing him publicly. CNN reported in March that his first purported message as supreme leader was delivered in written form and read on state television rather than through a live or recorded appearance.
The new footage therefore provides little clarity beyond showing that Iranian state media is seeking to demonstrate the continued presence of the country's supreme leader.
