Oil prices rose on Thursday after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was stopped following what it said was an Israeli ceasefire violation in Lebanon.
Iran accused the United States of violating elements of a two-week ceasefire agreement, raising concerns that tensions could escalate again and disrupt energy supplies.
International benchmark Brent crude futures for June delivery rose 2.52% to $97.14 while the US West Texas Intermediate crude futures for May added 2.72% to $96.96 per barrel.
Meanwhile, a Reuters report said Taiwan's state refiner CPC and trader Glencore have chartered tankers to load Middle Eastern crude for Asia, while at least two Chinese vessels are heading to the Strait of Hormuz to exit the Gulf.
The two-week ceasefire is conditional on allowing ships to pass through the strait, a chokepoint for about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, according to US officials. The six-week conflict brought traffic at the strait close to a standstill, pushing global energy prices sharply higher.
Shipping industry hesitates
However, shipping executives and insurers say that despite the ceasefire announcement, there is still no clear evidence of normal vessel movement resuming. Energy analysts noted that crude exports have yet to show signs of meaningful recovery, suggesting any impact on oil supply or fuel prices may take time to emerge.
Industry participants say the ceasefire remains fragile, and many shipowners are reluctant to move vessels until they see stronger evidence that the agreement will hold.
Several shipping operators are considering delaying departures for several more days, with some discussing the possibility of coordinated convoy movements later in the ceasefire period if conditions stabilise. Insurers have also maintained elevated war-risk premiums, citing uncertainty over which Iranian authority is authorising passage and how transit permissions will be managed during the limited two-week window.
The caution is reflected in traffic data: only three vessels were recorded crossing the strait on Wednesday, according to Lloyd's List, while MarineTraffic data showed hundreds of ships still waiting in the wider Gulf region, including 426 tankers, 34 LPG carriers and 19 LNG vessels.
Meanwhile, a CNBC report said in March, when all other Tehran’s neighbours had their barrels trapped inside the Gulf, Iranian crude exports only eased slightly to 1.9 million bpd. But what mattered more than volumes was pricing power. Iranian Light into China flipped from a steep $12/bbl discount to a $1/bbl premium to Brent, an extraordinary reversal for a heavily sanctioned grade.
