More than 860,000 people, nearly 90 per cent of Bahrain's population, will catch swine flu or the common flu by the end of next year, if people refuse vaccinations, it has been warned.

Of these, more than 20,000 would be confirmed H1N1 virus cases, says Bahrain University professor of applied physics Dr Waheeb Al Naser.

The number of H1N1 and common flu cases by the end of the year will be 17,708, while this would increase to 160,605 by June and 865,202 by the end of next year, if present trends continue, according to predictions by Dr Al Naser and colleague professor (of mathematics) Mahmood Abdulaty.

Dr Al Naser was speaking as he revealed the findings of their mathematical model on the spread of the virus, based on Health Ministry figures.

'According to these figures, there have been 15,878 (flu) cases so far, of which 878 have been confirmed swine flu cases.'

The model has been based on 10 per cent of the cases mixing in schools; 50 per cent cases coming from outside Bahrain; 30 per cent on social behaviour and 10 per cent on other causes, including the weather.

Dr Al Naser said since their model calculations were very similar to the Health Ministry estimates, they believed the calculations for the coming months would be accurate as well. 'People have to take vaccinations to prevent a catastrophe,' he said.

'If only 10 per cent take the vaccination, there will be 704 (H1N1) cases by the end of 2009 while by the end of next year, there would be 20,314 confirmed cases. If we vaccinate 50 per cent of the population, only 147 would have been affected by the end of 2009 while the figure would be 4,265 by the end of 2010.'

Dr Al Naser said if 75 per cent of the population was vaccinated, there would be only 14 cases by the end of this year and 426 by the end of next year.

He said at the rate at which the flu-like symptoms were appearing (H1N1 tests are no longer being routinely carried out), there could be a large number of classrooms closed in schools. 'Nine classes, with an average of 30 students each, have already been closed for a week and more will be closed.

'If 10 per cent of students have sore throat and runny nose, the school will be shut. This cannot go on and if we have a possible solution, we should grab it. Next year will be a disaster in the present scenario.'-TradeArabia News Service