The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has warned that urgent and substantial greenhouse gas emissions cuts are needed to limit the extent and duration of global warming above 1.5 deg C and return temperatures to that threshold by the end of the century.

The findings are outlined in the Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return, which examines a scenario limiting peak warming to 1.7-1.8 deg C around the middle of the century before bringing global temperatures back to or below 1.5 deg C by 2100, with approximately a 50 per cent probability.

To follow this pathway, global greenhouse gas emissions would need to fall by 18 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040, compared with 2025 levels.

By contrast, full implementation of countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would reduce emissions by only 5-8 per cent by 2030 and 11-15 per cent by 2035.

The required trajectory would mean average annual emissions reductions of 5.7 per cent between 2025 and 2035, exceeding the approximately 5 per cent annual reduction rate outlined in pathways in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a message accompanying the report: "Overshoot is not surrender. We can still keep it as small and as short as possible – and bring temperatures back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century," he said. "The new Emissions Gap Report from the United Nations Environment Programme shows us what it will take: Cutting global greenhouse gas emissions by 18 per cent by 2030 and 45 per cent by 2035 – compared with 2025 levels."

UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen highlighted the consequences of continued warming and the need to accelerate climate action.

“Every additional fraction of a degree and additional year of warming above 1.5 deg C increases climate impacts and risks, such as the deadly floods, heatwaves and wildfires that have plagued many nations this year,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. “So, we must pull out all the stops to minimize peak warming and return to 1.5 deg C by the end of the century. This is possible.

“We have a wealth of success stories showing that emissions can be cut quickly. It is now up to nations to urgently put in place policies that spark fast, deep and sustained emissions reductions, and put the world on track for a more stable climate and more stable economies and societies.”

Temperature projections remain above global targets

The report warns that existing climate commitments and policies remain insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals. If current policies continue, global warming could reach 2.8 deg C during this century and rise further thereafter.

Full implementation of NDCs would limit warming to 2.6 deg C, while the most optimistic scenario, combining all NDCs with additional net-zero targets, would restrict the increase to approximately 2.1 deg C.

These projections are worse than those published in the previous year’s report, reflecting the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions. New NDCs submitted since the previous assessment have made little difference to the overall projections.

The report also warns that every five years of carbon dioxide emissions at current levels would add approximately 0.1 deg C to peak warming, making it increasingly difficult to keep temperatures below 1.7-1.8 deg C.

Even the lowest-overshoot pathway would require the removal and permanent storage of approximately 320 gigatonnes of CO2 from the atmosphere over the course of this century. That is equivalent to around eight years of global CO2 emissions at 2024 levels. However, the report notes that technological and socioeconomic challenges make the scale of carbon removal required uncertain.

Existing climate policies offer opportunities

Despite the widening gap between current projections and climate targets, UNEP points to progress in renewable energy deployment and climate policymaking as evidence that faster emissions reductions are achievable.

Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, renewable energy has expanded significantly, while total energy supply from coal and oil has grown more slowly than previously projected. Climate policies have also reduced emissions in several countries and sectors.

More than 220 policy evaluations examined in the report provide evidence of the effectiveness of different approaches. Policies in the electricity sector reduced emissions by an average of 9 per cent, while economic instruments, including carbon taxes and cap-and-trade schemes, delivered reductions of 5-13 per cent across sectors during the evaluation periods.

However, these gains remain concentrated in particular countries, sectors and timeframes. UNEP says successful measures must be replicated, expanded and sustained to deliver reductions at the scale required.

Renewable energy and fossil fuel transition targets

The report calls for countries to accelerate implementation of commitments made during the first Global Stocktake, including tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements, transitioning away from fossil fuels, reducing non-CO2 emissions and halting deforestation.

Current trends across key emissions indicators, including energy-related CO2, road transport emissions and methane, remain inconsistent with the pace of reductions needed to limit temperature overshoot.

For 2035, the report proposes extending renewable energy and efficiency goals to include at least tripling renewable electricity capacity and reducing the primary energy intensity of gross domestic product by at least 30 per cent compared with 2025 levels. By 2040, the respective benchmarks would rise to at least 4.5 times renewable electricity capacity and a 40 per cent reduction in energy intensity.

UNEP notes that global renewable electricity capacity has grown three times faster than anticipated since the Paris Agreement, while solar photovoltaic deployment has increased seven times faster. Sustaining this progress with additional policies could help the world meet its 2030 renewable energy target and increase wind and solar generation in line with the lowest-overshoot pathway.

The report also outlines reductions required in fossil fuel consumption. By 2035, the global shares of coal, oil and gas in total energy supply would need to fall by at least 55 per cent, 15 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively, relative to 2025. By 2040, the required reductions would increase to 75 per cent for coal, 30 per cent for oil and 35 per cent for gas.

Coal-fired electricity generation would need to decline by at least 75 per cent by 2035 and be effectively phased out globally by 2040. Meanwhile, methane emissions would need to fall by at least 25 per cent by 2035 and 40 per cent by 2040, compared with 2025 levels.

Global cooperation remains critical

Looking ahead to the second Global Stocktake, UNEP says countries can build on existing commitments by reaffirming priority mitigation measures, extending quantified targets to 2035 and 2040, and establishing clearer objectives for implementation.

The report concludes that returning global temperatures to 1.5 deg C remains possible, but requires immediate, sustained and deeper emissions reductions. Expanding successful climate policies, accelerating renewable energy deployment and reducing dependence on fossil fuels will be central to limiting peak warming and reducing the long-term risks of climate change. -OGN/TradeArabia News Service