Global airlines will require more than 42,000 new aircraft over the next 20 years, driven by rapid urbanisation, rising incomes and the growing accessibility of air travel, according to Airbus' 2026-2045 Global Market Forecast.
The European aircraft manufacturer forecasts demand for 42,060 new aircraft between 2026 and 2045, comprising 22,240 aircraft to accommodate traffic growth and 19,820 to replace older, less fuel-efficient jets.
Single-aisle aircraft are expected to dominate deliveries, accounting for about 81% of total demand, while widebody aircraft will make up the remaining 19%, reflecting airlines' continued preference for more fuel-efficient and lower-emission fleets.
Passenger numbers to hit 10bn
Airbus expects global passenger traffic to grow at an average annual rate of 3.9% over the next two decades, underpinned by global economic expansion, urbanisation and the continued rise of the middle class. By 2045, the number of air passengers worldwide is projected to more than double to around 10 billion annually.
The forecast says the world's middle-class population — the demographic most likely to travel by air — is expected to increase by 1.4 billion people, or 34%, over the period. At the same time, urban populations are forecast to expand by another 1.3 billion people, creating new centres of economic activity and travel demand.
Airbus said urbanisation is increasingly shifting towards smaller and medium-sized cities, leading to the emergence of new air routes that were previously uneconomical. Advances in aircraft efficiency and range are enabling airlines to connect more city pairs directly, bypassing traditional hub airports.
Examples include regional routes such as Melbourne-Alice Springs and Riga-Tenerife, which can be efficiently served by aircraft such as the A220, while longer-range narrowbody and widebody aircraft are making nonstop services possible on routes including Lisbon-Recife, Dublin-Nashville, Algiers-Kuala Lumpur and Taipei-Phoenix.
Vital role of aviation
The company said aviation will continue to play a vital role not only in moving passengers but also in transporting high-value, time-sensitive cargo and supporting economic development by improving connectivity between cities and regions.
Airbus expects airline networks to become increasingly decentralised as smaller urban centres grow faster than major metropolitan areas. This trend is expected to boost demand for aircraft capable of serving lower-density routes profitably while also supporting long-haul operations.
The forecast also highlights a continuing shift in global aviation demand towards the Asia-Pacific region, driven by the rapid economic growth of countries such as India, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia. Rising international migration and increasing travel to visit friends and relatives are also expected to contribute to passenger growth.
Fleet renewal is expected to remain another major driver of aircraft demand. Airbus said airlines are accelerating the replacement of ageing fleets, many of which remained in service longer following the Covid-19 pandemic. By 2045, almost the entire global fleet is expected to consist of the latest-generation aircraft, compared with around 39% today, significantly improving fuel efficiency and reducing emissions.
Airbus said its current order backlog of around 9,000 aircraft reflects the strong long-term demand for new-generation aircraft across all market segments. -TradeArabia News Service
