Following the terrorist attacks in Paris where 129 people lost their lives, the outlook for travel and tourism demand in Paris is likely to be impacted in the short to medium term, said Caroline Bremner, Head of Travel at Euromonitor International, a leading market intelligence firm.

“Paris is the world’s fifth largest city in terms of international arrivals. The latest arrivals data for Paris with 15 million visitors shows that the city was already losing out to rival European competitors such as London, Barcelona and Amsterdam with a dip of 2 per cent over 2013/2014 due to a lack of competitiveness in terms of product offer and lack of unique activities,” she said.
 
Paris’s largest source markets are the US and UK who were already in decline, and the worsening security situation will deter visitors particularly from the US who may choose other European destinations that are not under such visible threat. Paris is also one of the world’s leading luxury shopping destinations and was heavily affected by the sharp fall in Russian visitors in 2014/20015 due to the Ukraine crisis and Russian recession.
 
Paris has a relatively large share of business travellers accounting for 38 per cent of international arrivals in 2014, and the corporate business segment is much more sensitive to security risks than the leisure sector. This dependency on business demand will lead to sharp potential fall in Mice visitors in the short term, particularly as uncertainty over the political response and potential counter-attacks remain unclear.
 
“France is the world’s leading destination, however, Paris accounts for less than 20 per cent of France’s total arrivals – 15 million vs 84 million 2014 - so there may be a slight slowdown for France as a whole, but Euromonitor International does not predict that France will witness a decline for 2015/2016 as tourism is very much integrated into every region of the country and so will act as a shock-absorber to the impact in the capital,” she said.
 
In the aftermath of the Paris attacks, security at ports, airports, borders and at key cultural and historical attractions have been stepped up and borders. The attacks in Paris have also thrown into sharp relief the inability of the European Union to manage the migrant crisis which has been going for months and where the bloc has failed to arrive at a consensus. Poland is the latest country to maintain control of its borders and reject EU migrant quotas according to Bloomberg.
 
“In the aftermath of the attacks coming so soon after the Russian air crash in Egypt, there is heightened uncertainty about what the major repercussions of recent geopolitical events are on the global travel industry. What we have seen, however, is that the travel industry is highly resilient following 9/11 and the various terrorist attacks in multiple countries over the past 15 years. Provided the necessary safety and security conditions are in place, advanced markets will continue to travel and thanks to the growth from the Asian middle classes, the travel industry is expected to continue on its growth trajectory, albeit at a slightly lower pace,” Bremner said.
 
The latest growth for global tourism demand according to the UNWTO Barometer (October 2015 edition) is 4.3 per cent, close to last year’s recorded 4.2 per cent. The outlook for 2016 is less certain so Euromonitor International estimates global growth of arrivals between 2-3 per cent in a best case scenario. – TradeArabia News Service