Wednesday 17 July 2024

Opec's forecast paints quite a realistic picture: Rosneft CEO

Dubai, June 9, 2024

The Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin expects oil demand to continue to grow. “It is not surprising that global oil demand continues to grow despite the expectations of the so-called ‘oil peak’. I believe that Opec's forecast paints quite a realistic picture of the future of the global energy industry,” he said while delivering speech at the Energy Panel of the 27th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum paying special attention to the energy transition.
According to Opec forecast, oil demand is to grow almost by 20 per cent to the value of 116 million bpd by 2045, and oil is to continue to account for about 30 per cent of the global energy mix.
Sechin also said that developing countries will be the main drivers of oil consumption in the coming decades. By 2030, demand growth in this group of countries is expected to account for 95 per cent of global consumption growth in aggregate. The highest growth in oil demand is expected in Asian countries.
In the last few years there have been huge investments made in alternative energy sources, but Sechin believes that “Despite huge investments made over the past decades, alternative energy sources have not led to the displacement of fossil fuels from the energy market and failed to occupy a significant share in the global market. At the same time, there is an imbalance in the energy market, which is caused by irresponsible and aggressive policies of the Western countries,” he said.
Pointing out that the developed countries have contributed most to the climate crisis, Sechin said “Developed countries account for 65 per cent of the cumulative emissions produced over the last 200 years; the world's 10 per cent wealthiest population is responsible for half of all CO2 emissions; the world's 1 per cent wealthiest population accounts for twice as much carbon dioxide emissions as the poorest 50 per cent of the world's population; and the entire continent of Africa produces less than 4 per cent of the world's emissions.”
He was of the view that to achieve energy security, it is necessary to ensure the sufficiency, affordability and reliability of energy sources. “Electric vehicles are not a panacea. Revision of electric vehicle subsidy policies demonstrates the lack of planning and haste with which Western countries initially approached electrification of vehicles. While they succeeded in attracting buyers with high subsidies a few years ago, Western governments are now planning to impose taxes on electric vehicles to plug budget holes,” said Sechin.
The gap in energy consumption between poor and rich countries is striking. For example, the per capita consumption in India, which accounts for about 20 per cent of the global population, is eleven times lower than in the US. “It is in the developing countries of Asia and Africa that are witnessing the greatest population growth and, as a consequence, a rapid increase in the need for energy resources. Obviously, a reduction in global consumption of fossil resources would automatically mean that the problem of hunger and energy poverty would not only persist, but also worsen. Thus, aggressive promotion of the green agenda means declaring an energy war on most of the world's population,” he said.
He added: “Overcoming energy inequality is impossible without reliable supplies of oil and gas. In addition to petroleum products, oil is used for the production of a huge number of day-to-day goods, without which the life of modern humans can no longer be imagined. Now that the failure of the green transition concept is evident, we have to develop a new strategy for a reliable and secure energy supply tailored to the needs of developing countries.”  --OGN/TradeArabia News Service



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