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GCC oil income may hit $4.7trn

Manama, February 13, 2009

At the Opec targeted floor price of $50 per barrel, GCC states will cumulatively earn $4.7 trillion by 2020, said a report by Ernst & Young.

This will be 2.5 times their oil earnings over the last 14 years, according to E&Y's Global Megatrends 2009 report.

Middle East economies are predicted to be a real growth story for the next few years, even as the region has not been immune to the effects of the global downturn.

"Regional economies are well-placed to capitalise on opportunities emerging from the crisis, despite the fact that there are some concerns over issues related to the tightening of the credit markets and softening of property prices," said Ernst & Young Middle East head of Transactions Advisory Services Phil Gandier.

"These increased earnings will allow GCC economies to buy additional assets globally or finance local infrastructure developments."

"Their relatively moderate regulation and tax regimes will be even bigger attractions as European and US business environments tighten under the pressure of the ongoing global recession," he added.

Countries like Egypt, Iran and Vietnam have been identified as potential rivals to countries like Brazil, Russia, India, China (BRIC), as well as some developed economies in future.

The study indicates that the global economic landscape is changing and emerging markets are playing an increasingly significant role. Economic power is moving from developed to emerging economies - from west to east and north to south.

Emerging economies accounted for 44 per cent of global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2007.

While projected GDP growth rates for major developed markets this year are now predicted to lie between 0.2 per cent and 0.5 per cent, emerging markets are expected to grow at 6.1 per cent on average, with China 9.3 per cent and India 6.9 per cent performing even better, says the report.

The growth of emerging economies may be less than was projected before the financial crisis, but they still demonstrate considerably stronger growth than the developed world.

In the case of China and Russia, their huge accumulated reserves, China with $1.9trn and Russia with $560 billion are expected to ease the pain.

Other trends include the rise of sovereign wealth funds, private equity and hedge funds as the new power brokers.-TradeArabia News Service




Tags: GCC | oil income |

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