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Record US soy crop to relieve tight supply

Washington, May 12, 2009

US farmers will grow a record 3.195 billion bushels of soybeans this year, rebuilding a stockpile that is forecast to shrink to a two-week supply before the new crop is ready for harvest, the government projected on Tuesday.

The Agriculture Department also projected a corn (maize) crop of 12.09 billion bushels, the third-largest on record, a wheat crop of 2.026 billion bushels and a slightly larger cotton crop of 13.25 million bales weighing 480 lbs (218 kg).

USDA forecast a winter wheat harvest of 1.502 billion bushels, down 20 per cent from last year, based on field surveys and interviews of 14,600 growers.

Dry weather slashed output in Texas and Oklahoma. Kansas, the No. 1 winter wheat state, will reap 340 million bushels this year, down 16 million bushels from 2008.

A cold and wet spring has slowed corn planting in the eastern Corn Belt. Illinois and Indiana farmers have sowed only a tenth of the crop when they usually are in the final stages by mid-May.

USDA projects a national yield of 155.4 bushels an acre, 1.5 bushels below normal due to late plantings.

USDA's figures prompted a higher open in futures prices for corn, wheat and soybeans at the Chicago Board of Trade but soybeans quickly turned lower on profit-taking.

Traders said USDA projected a smaller wheat crop than they expected, and noted the current tight soybean supply will be followed by a draw-down in the corn stockpile in 2009/10.

'The old-crop beans pull the corn (price) up and the new-crop corn pulls the beans up,' said analyst Don Roose at US Commodities. 'I think what you will see in both of these is that demand remains strong.'

Growers will plant a record 76 million acres of soybeans, up slightly from last year, pointing to a record harvest of 3.195 billion bushels and a fattening of stockpiles to 230 million bushels at the end of 2009/10, USDA said.

Record US soybean exports of 1.26 billion bushels would top the 1.24 billion bushels of exports expected for the current marketing year, when end stocks are estimated to fall to 130 million bushels, the smallest since 2003/04.

Some 4.1 billion bushels of corn will be used in making ethanol during the marketing year that opens on September 1, said USDA, up from 3.75 billion bushels in 2008/09.

The increase reflects a federal law guaranteeing a larger share of the motor fuel market in 2010.

Sharply lower sugar imports will reduce the US sugar supply in the trade year that opens October 1, said USDA, which assumed imports would be the minimum required under trade agreements and that sugar from Mexico would drop by 785,000 short tons raw value (715,000 tonnes), to 165,000 tons.

USDA will announce the sugar import quota later. Mexico is forecast to export less sugar in 2009/10 due to tight supplies.-Reuters




Tags: agriculture | US | farming | Crops | soya |

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