Mobinil, Egypt's largest mobile operator by subscribers, posted its highest quarterly profit on record on Sunday, but said growth would likely slow in 2009 as the global financial crisis hits Egypt's economy.

Mobinil said fourth-quarter profit grew 25 percent to 551 million Egyptian pounds ($99 million), beating analysts' forecasts. Revenue was up 24 percent in the quarter at 2.644 billion pounds.

But profit growth could fall in 2009 as the most populous Arab country begins to feel the impact of the global financial crisis, chairman Alex Shalaby told Reuters.

"It is not realistic to expect the same rate of growth going forward," Alex Shalaby said. "There is no question we will be impacted, albeit in a small way, by what is happening around us as we are impacted by less tourism and fewer investors."

Shalaby declined to give a specific profit forecast for 2009, but said the company would not see negative growth. An increase in both subscribers and usage, as well as a decline in costs, drove fourth-quarter profit, Shalaby said.

"We had a confluence of events in the fourth quarter," Shalaby said. "We carried a lot of traffic because of both the Muslim feast and the Christmas holiday."

Operating expenses excluding depreciation and amortisation, at 779.13 million pounds, were nearly unchanged in the fourth quarter compared to the same period a year earlier.

Cutting costs

"We are implementing cost-cutting measures and that is starting to show (an) effect," Shalaby said. "We also have started to slow down capital expenditures."

Mobinil said it had 20.115 million subscribers, up 33 percent from the number of subscribers at the end of 2007.

Mobinil, whose main shareholders are France Telecom and Orascom Telecom, competes in a three-way race for market share in Egypt with Vodafone Egypt and Etisalat Egypt.

Investment bank EFG-Hermes had forecast a profit of 526 million Egyptian pounds, Beltone Financial estimated 372 million pounds, and CI Capital Research predicted 448.6 million pounds.

"From my initial perspective these are very good results," said Shrouk Diab, analyst at Cairo-based investment bank Beltone Financial. "They have increased their Ebitda margin and they have kept their promise of keeping costs under control."

Mobinil said average revenue per user had declined, in part due to its push into lower-value markets. Mobinil also said it had paid 62 million pounds in the quarter for 3G instalment payments.

The company's shares ended Sunday's session down 2.79 percent at 132 pounds, before the results were announced. Credit Suisse upgraded Mobinil to "outperform" from "neutral" on January 29.

It said Mobinil would be a prime beneficiary of mobile penetration and broadband growth in the medium term, with revenue growing more than 10 percent a year on average for the next five years.

Credit Suisse says mobile penetration in Egypt could reach 100 percent from the current 50 percent within five years.-Reuters