Qatar’s real GDP growth will accelerate to 7 per cent in 2015, 7.5 per cent in 2016 and 7.9 per cent in 2017 as the government continues investing heavily in the non-hydrocarbon sector despite lower oil prices, a report said.

The Barzan project is expected to drive growth in the hydrocarbon sector, which is expected to grow by 0.8 per cent in 2015, 1.8 per cent in 2016 and 1.9 per cent in 2017 despite declining oil production due to maturing oil fields, elaborated the Qatar Economic Insight 2015 published by QNB Group.

The non-hydrocarbon sector is projected to continue its double-digit growth on large investments in construction, financial services and real estate.

The large influx of expatriate workers driven by major investment projects will add to aggregate demand, putting moderate pressure on domestic inflation.

Counterbalancing this, foreign inflation is expected to slow in 2015-17 as international commodity prices fall on weak global demand, record food harvests and a stronger US dollar.

Overall inflation is projected to slow to 2.5 per cent in 2015 as rising rents are expected to be partly offset by lower international food prices, before accelerating to 3.2 per cent in 2016 and 3.3 per cent in 2017.

Lower hydrocarbon revenue and rising capital spending are expected to tip the fiscal balance into deficits of 2.2 per cent of GDP in 2015, 3.4 per cent in 2016 and 3.7 per cent in 2017.

Hydrocarbon revenue is expected to decline with lower oil prices and crude oil production, but this will be partly offset by higher non-hydrocarbon revenue, supported by better corporate tax collection.

The government is expected to increase its capital spending while stabilising current expenditure with further expenditure rationalisation, said QNB.

The government plans to change its fiscal year to a calendar year basis starting with the 2016 budget, with an interim extension of the 2014-15 budget by nine months to cover the remainder of 2015.

Bank lending is expected to rise by 9 per cent in 2015, 10 per cent in 2016 and 11 per cent in 2017 increasingly driven by project lending and the expanding population.

Deposits are projected to grow steadily by 11.3 per cent in 2015, 11.5 per cent in 2016 and 12.5 per cent in 2017 on strong population growth and higher non-hydrocarbon GDP.

The outlook for banking is positive with low provisioning requirements and efficient cost bases will support strong bank profitability, according to the QNB report. – TradeArabia News Service