World merchandise trade growth exceeded expectations in the first quarter of 2026 as surging trade in electronic components related to artificial intelligence (AI) offset the negative impact of the conflict in the Middle East, which began in the final month of the quarter.
The seasonally adjusted volume of world merchandise trade grew 1.9% in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter and 3.2% compared to the same quarter in the previous year according to WTO/UNCTAD data. In value terms, world merchandise trade was up 2% quarter-on-quarter and 11% year-on-year in the first quarter.
Meanwhile, AI-related investment spending lifted trade volumes in Asia and to a lesser extent in North America in the first quarter. Seasonally adjusted exports and imports of Asia were up 12.9% and 14.6%, respectively, compared with the first quarter of 2025.
The value of merchandise exports in the first quarter increased the most in Asia, rising 20% year-on-year. This growth was driven particularly by exports of precious metals and gold, copper, machinery and electrical machinery, and ores, while exports of iron and steel, pharmaceuticals, and clothing dropped.
According to WTO, Africa saw the second-highest increase, with 14% growth, supported by exports of precious metals and gold, copper, fertilizers, and ores, among others, though cocoa and fuels exports declined.
South and Central America also grew by 14%, with increases in exports of oil seeds, precious metals and gold, meat, fuels, ores, coffee and tea.
The region saw declines in exports of fruits, electrical machinery, and vehicles. Only the exports of the Middle East and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) showed declines, both falling by 1%.
On the imports side, strong year-on-year increases were observed for Asia (+22%) and Africa (+15%). Regarding Asia, imports of precious metals/gold, copper and machinery showed marked increases, while iron and steel imports went slightly down.
African imports grew particularly for vehicles, machinery and ships/boats, while aircraft and organic chemicals imports fell. North America's merchandise imports in the first quarter decreased the most (-7%), with imports of precious metals, pharmaceuticals, vehicles and articles of iron or steel recording particularly strong contractions. The value of Middle East imports also fell 6% due to a combination of rising prices and falling volumes.
All the top five exporters in the first quarter of 2026 recorded nominal export growth year-on-year, with the Republic of Korea leading with +38.4%; followed by Hong Kong, China (+38.3%); the United States (+15.2%); and China (+14.7%). The European Union (+9.2%) recorded a more modest growth rate.
Of the top five importers, only US merchandise imports declined (-13.6%) during the first quarter of 2026, while imports of the other four increased in value terms: Hong Kong, China, +44.8%, the United Kingdom +28.0%, China +23.0% and the European Union +11.4%.
