Global tonnages in June were 9% higher than the same month last year, and stable compared to May, taking volumes for the second quarter 6% higher, year on year (YoY), and also 6% above their level in Q1, according to WorldACD Market Data.
Chargeable weight for the first half was up +5%, YoY, as air cargo growth has continued this year despite the disruptions to capacity and markets in the Middle East, led by a +8% YoY H1 increase in tonnages from Asia Pacific origins.
The strong June YoY tonnage growth was shared by most of the main air cargo origin regions, led by 11% YoY increases from the Middle East & South Asia, partially driven by Eid Al Adha held in May this year vs June last year), Asia Pacific (+10%) and North America (+9%), with Europe (+7%) and Central & South America (CSA, +7%) also contributing with healthy growth levels, while Africa’s growth was more subdued (+1%).
Worldwide air cargo rates, meanwhile, remained high in June, despite the ongoing return of capacity to Middle East and Gulf markets, with average full-market rates around one third (+33%) higher, YoY, for June and for Q2 as a whole, based on a combination of spot rates and contract rates.
Average rates for Q2 were also well above (+28%) their average level in Q1, illustrating how significantly the market has changed since the US and Israel began their military campaign against Iran on February 28.
Global spot rates largely stable
Average worldwide spot rates in June of $3.71 per kilo were broadly stable compared with their level of the previous month, but year on year the increase reduced from +49% in May to +43% in June.
The YoY increase in June was driven by +49% from Middle East & South Asia and Africa origins, +47% from Asia Pacific, and also with substantial YoY increases from North America (+42%) and Europe (+34%), while spot rates from CSA were up by a relatively modest +14%, YoY.
According to WorldACD Market Data, despite the volatility and some renewed flare-ups in the confrontation between the US and Iran, the relative stability in the situation since the two sides signed a memorandum last month has led to a further fall in jet fuel prices, which dropped by another -2%, WoW, to below $117 per barrel in the week ending 26 June, while Brent crude fell by -9% to below $74 per barrel, according to IATA’s Jet Fuel Price Monitor, which is based on the latest price data from Platts.
Various carriers have announced reductions in their respective air cargo fuel surcharges from July 1, with further reductions likely to translate into an easing of overall air cargo rates in the coming weeks.
Capacity recovery continues
Those pricing dynamics also depend on the wider supply and demand situation across key markets, and the relative stability of the US-Iran situation in the last few weeks has helped support a continuing stabilisation of air cargo capacity to and from Gulf markets.
Based on a comparison of the last two weeks with the preceding two weeks (2Wo2W) worldwide air cargo capacity increased 3%, mainly driven by origin region Middle East & South Asia, (+5%), followed by North America (+4%) and Europe (+3%).
That took worldwide air cargo capacity +3% higher than this time last year – with capacity from Middle East & South Asia, origins now also back slightly above last year’s levels (+1%, YoY), it added.-TradeArabia News Service
