Worldwide air cargo volume was 2% higher in the first half of December compared with the first half of November, showing a better MoM trend than the trend from October to November.

 

Origin regions with the highest volume increase were Africa (+21%) and Central & South America (+8%). Load factors show a consistent, though small, increase since the beginning of November, according the WorldACD Market Data.

 

Worldwide average yields/rates (per kg) reached a level of $3.32 in the second week of December, two cents above the November-average.

 

Volatility, both in volumes and in rates, has been the order of the day for air cargo in many markets in 2020.

 

November saw a worldwide volume drop of 12.6% year-on-year (YoY), a decrease percentage which has more or less become the norm in the second half of 2020. This was coupled with the strongest YoY rate/yield increase (in USD) since the crazy months of April and May: + 79% YoY, an increase substantially higher than in the previous months. Yields/rates in November are usually about 4% above those in October; this year the increase was 11.2%, from $2.97 to $3.30 (volume was down by 2% MoM). We already reported on this trend in our recent weekly updates.

 

Asia Pacific was the only origin region growing its air cargo business between October and November (by 3.2%). Remarkably, yields/rates from Africa and MESA (Middle East & South Asia) dropped MoM.  Not surprisingly, given the large orders of ‘PPE-goods’, shipments above 5000 kgs grew YoY, whilst all smaller weight breaks lost between 16% and 29% YoY. The grimmest November statistic was this one: the transport by air of human remains grew by 8% YoY…

 

Overall capacity went up by 1% from October to November: freighter capacity decreased by 1% MoM, whilst cargo capacity on passenger aircraft went up by 3%. Load factors on passenger aircraft increased by 1%-point, and on freighter aircraft decreased (slight drop of 1%).

 

Calling the air cargo market hot, would probably be the understatement of the year. The usual trends from the pre-Covid days seem to have become just faint memories. Have a look at the November yields/rates for some of the largest markets in the world:

 

*Highest average: Hong Kong to USA Midwest: $6.88/kg;

 

*Highest percentual YoY increase: United Kingdom to USA North East: +289%;

 

*Highest absolute change YoY: China East to USA Midwest: +$3.43; and

 

*Highest percentual change vs October 2020: South Korea to Germany: +58%.

 

With all the changes this year, one thing that hardly changed was the traffic pattern of airlines. As a percentage of their total business, traffic originating in, or destined for, their respective home bases, just went from 40% to 39% since November 2019.

 

Airlines based in Asia Pacific continued to score highest on “home-grown/home-bound” volumes (changing from 56% to 58%), while airlines based in MESA further improved their position as the “champions of third-country traffic” (from 28% to 25%).

 

The fate of each region’s top-3 origins in 2020 could hardly have been more varied. Of the 18 cities we reviewed, three increased their business in spite of the severe worldwide drop: Shanghai, Bogota and Santiago de Chile. The other 15 lost business, but in very different measures. For cities like Cairo, London and Mumbai, it must have come as a shock to their systems to see that business originating with them decreased by so much more than the worldwide average of 16% (Jan-Nov 2020). But in this uncommon year, volume changes are almost the minor part of the story. Take the case of Chicago: outbound business dropped by 9% (Jan-Nov YoY), but generated 10% more revenues for the airlines. At the same time, airline revenues from inbound traffic to Chicago increased by an incredible 92% YoY. -- Tradearabia News Service