Economic growth for most Middle Eastern and North African oil exporters is likely to accelerate this year, although some may see a sharp slowdown due to social unrest, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday.

Regional real gross domestic product (GDP) should expand by 4.9 percent this year, less than the 5.0 percent projected by the IMF in October but well above 3.5 percent in 2010, the multilateral lender said in its regional economic report.

'Growth is likely to be uneven in 2011, but the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) as a group is racing ahead. Bahrain, Iran, Libya, Sudan, and Yemen are likely to be negatively affected but the rest are expected to grow well above trend,' the IMF said.

The forecast for the region, home to six of the world's top 10 oil exporters, is not fully comparable with previous figures as the IMF chose to exclude Libya, torn by fighting between rebels and forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi.
   
The fund said robust crude prices -- near their highest since September 2008 at around $112 per barrel -- and raised government spending aimed at easing social tensions were among key factors supporting economic expansion in the region.

Growth in impoverished Yemen, shaken by three months of protests against President Ali Abdullah Saleh, was forecast to plunge to 3.4 percent this year from 8.0 percent in 2010.

Bahrain's economic output should expand by 3.1 percent, the IMF said, down from 4.5 percent last year. The kingdom imposed martial law last month and invited troops from Gulf neighbours to quell its worst unrest since the 1990s.

Some indicator forecasts had already been updated in the IMF's World Economic Outlook, released earlier this month.

The Fund said the region's near-term economic outlook was subject to unusually large uncertainties stemming from the unrest, with risks on the downside.

'Protracted unrest could adversely affect investor sentiment, weigh on private sector activity (Bahrain, Libya, Oman, Yemen), and affect the cost and availability of financing for the region as a whole,' it said.

Oil income growth will generate substantial fiscal surpluses in crude exporting countries in 2011 despite increased social spending, but with greater revenue uncertainty, the IMF said.

The current account surplus of oil exporters excluding Libya is projected at about $378 billion in 2011, of which the Gulf states will account for about $304 billion.

The IMF said inflation was expected to increase in almost all the countries of the region this year, to an average of 11 percent as concerns about food security rise.

 'Some governments, particularly in the GCC (Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE), will need to carefully monitor the impact of expansionary fiscal spending on aggregate demand to prevent a resurgence of inflationary pressures,' it said.  - Reuters