Leila Masinaei
Mideast spearheading $32bn global desalination market
ABU DHABI, December 16, 2021
The global desalination market is likely to record a two-fold growth with its total spend surging from $17.7 billion in 2020 to $32.1 billion by 2027 mainly driven by the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) market which has around 48% of the ongoing desalination projects, pushing investments to a predicted $4.3 billion by 2022, said a report ahead of the third edition of the Mena Desalination Projects Forum in Abu Dhabi.
To be held from March 15 to 16, it is the largest government-endorsed regional desalination conference that will bring together over 400 regional and international stakeholders from the government, consulting, contracting and technology sectors to discuss the way forward for the region’s desalination industry, key upcoming mega projects, and national sustainability visions driving the region’s 2030 water agendas.
More than 150 C-Suite Executives (CEOs and MDs) including more than 30 speakers and panelists will be taking part in the event which will also see 30 exhibitors and sponsors displaying their latest innovation and technologies.
The rising demand for desalinated water, growing investment and increasing number of desalination projects will come under focus at the two-day forum.
According to a World Bank report, the annual cost of demand gap for clean or desalinated water in the Mena region could go as high as $300 to $400 billion from the current $104 billion per year.
Water scarcity in the region has already become a challenge to development. This scarcity will only grow over time due to increasing population, expected economic growth, and the likely impacts of climate change on water availability and demand, it stated.
The Mena region is one of the most water-stressed parts of the world. In just over 25 years, between 1975 and 2001, the amount of fresh water available to a citizen in the region was cut in half - from 3,000 cu m per person to 1,500 cu m per person - largely due to rapid population growth.
Today, that citizen has a little over 1,000 cu m for their use, compared to a global average of over 7,000 cu m. By another measure, 14 of the world’s top 20 water-scarce countries are situated in Mena region.
“Our analysis shows that the water demand gap will quintuple by 2050, from today’s 42 cu km per annum to approximately 200 cu km per annum.” World Bank said in the report.
According to the analysis, even if all viable demand and supply management measures are implemented, the total cost of closing the water demand gap will be approximately $104 billion per year. This cost easily could go as high as $300 billion to $400 billion a year if none of the demand management options is adopted.
Even though the 2020s have started off with an unprecedented heightening of awareness regarding global environmental issues, no-one can change the inviable laws of supply and demand.
In the Mena region, demand for fresh water is increasing while supplies dwindle at an alarming rate. The two sides of this coin combine to create somewhat critical reading in 2021, it stated.
The region contains more than 6.3% of the world’s population, but less than 1% of global water resources. Making up the predicted Mena water deficit in 2025 will require the production of an additional 237 billion cu m of potable water. By 2050, water scarcity could cost the region between 6-14% of the entire region’s GDP each year.
While these numbers are not encouraging, there are changes, opportunities and advancements in the Mena desalination industry that provide hope for a sea-change in the region’s water security prospects.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE now use desalination to supply over 50 percent of their national water needs. These countries are world leaders in attracting, supporting and leveraging desalination technology, said experts.
The Arab Water Council (AWC) developed six policy briefs in the field of Non-Conventional Water Resources (NCWR) with its different components (Desalinated water, treated wastewater, agricultural drainage water, brackish groundwater, rainwater harvesting) including enhanced policy framework, legal and institutional enabling environment, technical capacity building, social consideration and economic and financial measures towards sustainable use of NCWR development and management in the Arab region.
Dr Hussein El-Atfy, Secretary General of AWC, said: "The future of Arab water security will largely depend on the development of the NCWR as a strategic perspective which is no longer an option but a must to face the escalating water scarcity crisis."
In Saudi Arabia, the Saudi Water Partnership Company (SWPC) has announced that commercial operations on the Jubail 3A independent water producer (IWP) project will commence in the last quarter of 2022.
"The resolution of the council of ministers extended the scope of the work of SWPC as the principal offtaker of water to include the purchase of desalinated, purification, treated and untreated water, water transmission lines and strategic reservoir tanks in addition to co-generation," stated CEO Engineer Khaled Al Qureshi.
"The Ministry of Finance owns fully (100%) the Saudi Water Partnership Company and the Company's capital is SR100,000,000, and here we are work on water issues in the region," he added.
According to experts, through technological innovation, on current state the cost of producing desalinated water has fallen to below $0.50 per cubic metre – in the 1960s it cost over $10 per cu m.
In parallel the specific electrical energy consumption for producing desalinated water have also fallen from highs of 7-8 kwh per cubic metre to current averages of 2.5-3 kwh. This makes desalination sustainable from an energy perspective, especially when powered via renewables.
Countries within the Mena region will add an estimated 20GW of solar capacity and 5-6GW of wind by 2025. The global desalination market is predicted to grow from $17.7 billion in 2020 to $32.1 billion by 2027.
Around 48 percent of the world’s water desalination projects are taking place in the MENA region, pushing investments to a predicted $4.3 billion by 2022, they added.
Corrado Sommariva, CEO of Sustainable Water and Power Consultants, said: "The conference will be able to focus on the water contribution towards zero net 2050 and how the water sector not only can accomplish but even surpass net zero 2050 target."
"Technology has generally been developing at an unprecedent pace in the past decade, this conference will indicate how the industry benefited from this development and what are the key innovations in desalination which is key to achieve a sustainable water supply," noted Sommariva.
"The decoupling of power and water production across the region has resulted in a growing trend to adopt captive solar photovoltaic (PV) plants, which is expected to drive water production costs down furtherm," he added.
Can public sector take advantage of these opportunities to find new synergies between an electric grid increasingly fed by solar energy and the desalination system to control peak loads?”
This shows that Mena is ready to capitalise on the strength of its existing desalination industry as well as its abundant potential for producing renewable energy. As the monetary and energy-related costs of producing desalinated water continue to fall, capacity will steadily rise across the region.
Leila Masinaei, Managing Partner, Great Mind Events Management and the event organisers, said: "All these facts underline the depth of the water scarcity situation and the growing importance of the desalinated water. That way, the Forum is one of the most important industry conferences that highlights the challenges as well as opportunities."
"We are happy to be able to bring all the major stakeholders in this important conference where senior government officials, private businesses, contracting companies, project consultants and water experts will discuss key issues such as new technology, reducing the cost of desalination, sustainability and energy efficiency at the two-day conference," she noted.
"Great Minds Event Management brings some of the most important industry events that are crucial for the future development of economy and society of the region," she added.-TradeArabia News Service
