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INSIGHT

Saudi prince makes bold moves towards reforms

RIYADH, May 4, 2016

Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman got a standing ovation when he visited a gathering of Saudi youth last month. Last week, after hearing about his economic plans in a meeting with religious leaders, one of the kingdom's conservative sheikhs tweeted a smiling selfie of himself with the prince.

Whether the 31-year-old son of King Salman will achieve his goal of modernising the kingdom's economy is the subject of animated debate on social media, in office buildings and at coffee shops in Riyadh.

The plans, aimed at ending dependence on oil by 2030, require shaking up a bureaucracy that has stymied changes in the past, challenging powerful conservatives and building up a private sector currently reliant on state spending.

The prince's close aides acknowledge the difficulties.

Yet in this country of 20 million Saudis and 10 million expatriates, the rise of Prince Mohammed -- who runs economic, defence and oil strategy -- underscores a dramatic shift towards a leadership seemingly more in tune with the needs of a country where 70 percent of the population is under 30.

That has meant changes in style and substance. Prince Mohammed works 16-hour days and has appointed business people and economic experts instead of other royals to top jobs.

Many younger Saudis see the rise of a man who is usually referred to as "MbS" as evidence their generation is at last playing a role in a country.

That backing, and widespread fears about plunging oil prices, is providing MbS with an important springboard for his efforts. When in December, he and his team raised petrol prices -- a step previous administrations had hesitated to take -- Saudis took the move in stride.

The lack of protests surprised MbS, according to people close to the prince, but also helped convince him that Saudis were ready for a change.

Jihad Al-Najjar, one of those who lined up outside petrol stations that night to fill up on the lower cost fuel, said he understood the country could no longer afford such subsidies. "It's not the real price," the 22-year-old medical student said.

Abdulaziz Al-Sager, head of the Jeddah and Geneva-based Gulf Research Centre, says there is a growing recognition among Saudi leaders that the oil-based economic system is not sustainable. That will necessarily lead to social and political change.

CONFIDENCE

Few had heard of Prince Mohammed before his father, 80-year-old son of modern Saudi Arabia's founder, became the kingdom's 7th monarch in January 2015. Today, Prince Mohammed is second in line to rule behind Mohammed bin Nayef, a cousin who is Crown Prince and, as Interior Minister, head of internal security.

Unlike many other royals, Prince Mohammed did not go to school abroad but graduated from King Saud University with a law degree. King Salman made him his personal adviser at a very young age.

In his few public appearances with journalists, the powerful prince projects confidence. He listens to questions in English but speaks through the Royal Court's interpreter, and sometimes corrects the interpreter's phrasing of English translations.

His picks for top cabinet positions and senior advisers have leant more heavily on former businessmen than those of former administrations, which relied more on professional bureaucrats.

Last week, Prince Mohammed officially unveiled Saudi Vision 2030, his blueprint to move the economy decisively from what he called its "addiction to oil" towards the private sector.

The phased removal of subsidies on fuel, water and electricity -- part of the welfare lavished on Saudis, of whom about four out of five workers hold public sector jobs -- is already underway.

The new plan includes earning non-oil income from private investment and privatisation and setting up the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world. The idea is to create millions of new jobs and raise the participation of women in the workforce from 22 currently to 30 percent by 2030.

The plans also include selling a stake of less than 5 percent in Saudi Aramco, the state oil giant, and placing the proceeds and the company in the Public Investment Fund (PIF), along with other assets that could eventually create an investment vehicle worth up to $3 trillion.

Another ambitious target is to locally source 50 percent of Saudi military procurements -- part of the third largest defence budget in the world -- by 2030, up from a mere 2 percent now. - Reuters




Tags: Saudi | reforms | MBS | Prince Mohammed |

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