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Oil recovers over buying chance

Singapore, May 20, 2011

Oil prices recovered on Friday as traders saw the previous session's dip as an opportunity to snap up cargoes amid expectations that concerns over supply disruption from the Middle East would continue to support the market.     

Brent crude for July rose 12 cents to $111.54 a barrel by 0521 GMT, while US oil for June gained 41 cents to $98.85 ahead of the contract's expiry.

"Traders are seeing yesterday's slide as a buying opportunity," Victor Shum, an analyst at Purvin & Gertz, said in Singapore. "We are not likely to see an aggressive exit by participants from oil as there is no sign of a quick resolution to the geopolitical risk, and that is offering a support to the market."

Brent is poised for a fall of 2 percent this week, swinging between a high of $113.56 a barrel and a low of $108.07. US oil is expected to remain little changed, trading between $100.99 and $95.02 this week.     

The phase of consolidation comes after both crude grades lost between $15 and $20 in the prior two weeks, a correction some traders and analysts said was overdone.   

For next week, Shum expects US oil to trade around $100 a barrel and Brent around $100-$115 a barrel, with a key driver being the value of the dollar against the euro.

Any fresh development on the sovereign debt issue in Greece and other economies in Europe will weigh on the euro, strengthening the dollar, which will in turn put pressure on commodities, as they are denominated in dollars.

On the other hand, a quick appointment of a new chief of the International Monetary Fund may support the euro on expectations of there being someone to take charge of long-term policy, weakening the dollar, Shum said.

"Overall, the market mood is of consolidation," he said. Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao says Brent needs to overcome a resistance at $113.20 per barrel to rise further towards $115, as its drop on Thursday has temporarily neutralized the signals, while US oil has turned neutral due to the drop.  - Reuters




Tags: | Oil | cargoes | Brent Crude |

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