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China, India data sparks inflation worry

Beijing, April 16, 2011

China and India reported higher-than-expected inflation readings, giving fresh ammunition to central bankers and investors worried about mounting price pressures in the global economy.

Consumer prices in the euro zone also picked up more than expected, with the inflation rate still moderate but steadily rising, not least because of higher food and energy costs.

Prices of oil and grain are climbing in part because of strong growth in China, India and other emerging economies, which have shown the developed world a clean pair of heels since the global financial crisis.

"The weakness in markets this week is expected after the smart comeback we have seen recently, with inflationary concerns again coming to the forefront," said Rabobank financial markets research global head Jan Lambregts on Friday.

Consumer price inflation in China quickened to 5.4 per cent in the year to March, the fastest since July 2008, from 4.9 per cent in the first two months.

In India, the Wholesale Price Index, the main inflation gauge, rose 8.98 per cent in the year to March, up from 8.31 per cent in the 12 months to February and beating market projections of an 8.36 per cent reading.

Economists expect the central banks of both countries to tighten monetary policy further in short order to dampen inflationary pressure.

A rise in the proportion of deposits Chinese banks must hold in reserve, rather than lend out, could be imminent after Premier Wen Jiabao in midweek reaffirmed his determination to keep a lid on prices.

Core inflation, excluding food and energy, was the highest in China in a decade. In India, a sharp upward revision to figures for January has led some economists to conclude that underlying price pressures are greater than they had thought.

"It seems inflation trajectory has changed. The expected decline in inflation is not happening and looks like we have underestimated the underlying pressure on prices," said IIFL economist Ashutosh Datar, in Mumbai.

"More monetary tightening is inevitable after today's data and the case for a 50 basis point hike in May is strengthened."

Final March figures for the euro zone showed inflation jumped to 2.7 per cent from 2.4 per cent in February, slightly more than a preliminary forecast and the fourth month it has been above the European Central Bank's target of 2 per cent.

The ECB was the first of the three major Western central banks to raise rates last week and it is expected to move again by July despite concern over the damage higher rates will do to economies like Portugal and Ireland.




Tags: China | India | inflation data |

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