Dollar, franc hold gains amid Egypt unrest
Cairo, January 29, 2011
The US dollar and Swiss franc are likely to hold gains next week should tensions in Egypt persist, raising concerns about stability in the Middle East and North Africa and increasing investor demand for safer havens.
A slew of economic data and central bank decisions is due next week, including the US government's closely watched monthly non-farm payrolls report, but analysts said civil unrest in Egypt, if not contained, could easily trump macro fundamentals.
Both the dollar and Swiss franc rallied on Friday, with the greenback and franc rising 0.8 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively, against the euro.
Emerging market currencies also sold off, led by the Turkish lira and the Israeli shekel as wide-spread demonstrations continued in Egypt with protesters clashing with police in the streets of Cairo.
With Egyptian markets closed on Fridays and Saturdays, investors sold shekels and lira and bought the dollar in a proxy trade during the unrest.
Oil futures also surged on the unrest in Egypt, rising 4.3 percent to $89.36 per barrel on fear that prices may continue spiking from current levels.
"This could really encompass the region. Egypt is really the pivot point in the entire Arab world and has implications for things like the price of oil," said Dan Dorrow, head of research at FX advisory and execution firm Faros Trading in Stamford, Connecticut.
"If Monday looks a lot like today, then the political risk premium will swamp any kind of of central bank and economic fundamentals and we could see more safe-haven moves to the Swiss franc."
Spot gold also rose on Friday as investors sought protection from political risk, rising 2.0 percent at $1,337.50 per ounce.
Next week, the biggest focus will be the release on Friday of January US employment, with the economy expected to have created 146,000 jobs in the month. But unless the report shows a blockbuster number, the dollar is unlikely to gain much from it.
Win Thin, global head of emerging market strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, said while Egypt has a small economy and no longer is a major player in oil exports after it turned net oil importer, it is an important geopolitical player.
Thin noted that Egypt is only one of two Arab countries that have signed peace treaties with Israel -- the other being Jordan - and therefore the US considers it as an important ally in the region.
Egypt also controls the Suez Canal, through which an estimated 8 per cent of global sea trade travels. "So clearly, it is in US and European interests to see a negotiated solution," Thin said.-Reuters