Oil retraces after jump, holds above $85
Singapore, November 30, 2010
Oil slipped on Tuesday, retracing part of the sharp gains seen in the previous session, while traders awaited further evidence that inventories were draining amid hopes of a surge in demand for heating in sight.
Prices climbed 2.4 per cent on Monday, led by futures of heating fuels including gas oil, as cold weather gripped northern Europe and the US Northeast, raising expectations of higher consumption.
US crude for January fell 51 cents to $85.22 a barrel at at 0346 GMT after rising $1.97 on Monday, when it briefly touched $85.90, the highest price since Nov. 12. Prices reached a 25-month high of $88.63 on Nov. 11.
ICE Brent slipped 41 cents to $86.93 after rising more than 2 per cent on Monday, when it shrugged off doubts that Ireland's financial bailout would prevent other euro zone crisis.
'Investors are in a wait-and-see attitude, holding for some positive news to boost prices further,' said Serene Lim, a Singapore-based oil analyst at ANZ.
'The reason for yesterday's bullishness besides the Ireland bailout was the cold weather in Europe. Prices were actually boosted by fundamentals, rather than macro factors.”
The euro held near a two-month low on Tuesday and major stock indexes edged lower as fears that Ireland's fiscal problems could spread to more euro zone countries weighed on investor sentiment.
US crude oil inventories probably fell by 400,000 barrels last week as imports dipped, a Reuters poll of analysts showed, but analysts were divided with an equal number of them predicting a decline and an increase.
'You have to be cautious because typically at the end of the year inventories tend to come off because of tax purposes,' Lim said. 'Refiners would tend to offload their inventories to offshore.”
Stockpiles of distillates including heating oil and diesel probably fell for a tenth consecutive week, shedding 900,000 barrels last week, the poll showed, while gasoline inventories probably climbed 1.2 million barrels.
An industry report on inventories from the American Petroleum Institutes (API) was due on Tuesday at 2130 GMT, followed by government statistics from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday.
Cold temperatures in Northeast and northwestern Europe provided a boost to London gas oil and US heating oil distillate futures on Monday as the US December refined products contracts neared their Tuesday expiration.
Factory output in Japan, the world's third-largest oil user, fell in October by the most since February 2009, as slowing exports and the diminishing effects of stimulus-driven consumption cloud the outlook for the fragile economic recovery.
A Reuters oil poll showed most analysts revising price estimates higher, while a Reuters survey of OPEC showed slightly better compliance with production target limits.
OPEC president Ecuador joined a number of other oil producers on Monday in signaling tolerance for higher prices, saying crude could rise to $90 a barrel without endangering the world economy if growth picks up.
Secretive North Korea detailed for the first time its expanded nuclear programme on Tuesday, saying it had thousands of centrifuges as pressure built on China to rein in its ally amid heightened tensions on the peninsula. – Reuters