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Oil below $76 on revised US GDP data

Singapore, November 25, 2009

Oil slipped below $76 a barrel on Wednesday, after a fall of two percent a day earlier on data showing slower-than-expected US growth and a big build in crude stocks, signalling weak demand in the world's top energy user.

The dollar hit its lowest in 7 weeks against the yen after mixed US data fanned worries about a global rebound, enhancing the Japanese currency's appeal, which combined with persistent concerns about equity funding and uncertainty about government economic policy to keep Tokyo's benchmark index flat.

US crude for January delivery fell six cents to $75.96 a barrel by 0315 GMT, after settling down $1.54 on Tuesday.

London Brent crude was up 13 cents to $76.59.

Crude prices have risen from below $33 a barrel last December, although they are still around 48 percent lower than a record above $147 hit in July 2008.

U.S crude oil stocks grew 3.3 million barrels in the week to Nov. 20, eclipsing forecasts of a 1.2-million barrel build from analysts polled by Reuters this week, the report from the API showed. The EIA will release its own data at 1530 GMT.

Sentiment has soured further on signs that demand in Japan, the world's third-largest oil consumer, stayed sluggish, with crude imports sliding for the 12th straight month in October.

"Fundamentals are not looking too good, and sentiment has turned due to the weaker data from the United States," said Sumisho Sano, general manager for research at SCM Securities in Tokyo.

"We could see oil break below the crucial $75-$76 level, and trade down to $65-$75. If we do break $75, there will be a lot of liquidation in the market."

The release of US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data later in the day could confirm the bearish figures from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and set the market's tone, although trading is expected to remain light ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.

Traders will scrutinise economic data due later, including weekly US jobless claims and October durable goods orders, for signs of improvement in the world's largest economy.

Oil markets have increasingly looked to economic data this year for signs of a global recovery to boost flagging demand.

Oil prices have risen amid rallying equity markets and a weaker US dollar, which makes crude more attractive for foreign currency holders.

Underscoring the fragile state of the recovery, a second estimate of third-quarter GDP by the Commerce Department showed the US economy grew at a much slower pace of 2.8 percent in the third quarter, versus an earlier estimate of 3.5 percent.

But a fifth month of gains in house prices in September and an improvement in consumer morale indicated that the world's largest economy had probably exited from its most painful recession in 70 years.

Japan's oil demand showed little improvement. The country imported 16.214 million kilolitres (3.29 million barrels per day) of crude last month, down 18.4 percent and the lowest for the month since 16.099 million in 1989, preliminary data showed.

More mixed economic data is on the cards in the United States. The Commerce Department will release October durable goods orders at 1330 GMT, with economists expecting a small rise of 0.5 percent rise versus September's increase of 1.4 percent.

The Labor Department will also unveil first-time claims for jobless benefits for the week ended Nov. 21. A total of 500,000 new filings are expected, versus 505,000 in the prior week.

New home sales data for October is also due at 1500 GMT.

Economists forecast a total of 410,000 annualised units in the month, up marginally from 402,000 in September. – Reuters




Tags: stocks | Singapore | oil price | US GDP |

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