A global economic recovery could start this year rather than in the first half of next year, when the body's present forecasts predict, said a top official of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

"It could begin earlier than in the first half of 2010, in late 2009," said Dominique Strauss-Kahn, IMF managing director, in a speech in the Norwegian capital.

IMF projections show global growth at three per cent next year after a decline of 1 per cent this year, he was quoted as saying by our sister publication, the Gulf Daily News.

"Just now we see the beginning of the end of the crisis,” he said.

But he repeated that governments should not withdraw fiscal stimulus measures too quickly, which could lead to a "W-shaped, double dip recession".

Strauss-Kahn said that normally unemployment continued to rise for about a year after recovery starts, during which time countries should refrain from slashing extraordinarily lax policies in what is referred to as an "exit" strategy.

"We cannot say we're out of the woods until we know the peak of unemployment... We have to walk, not run, to the 'exit'," Strauss-Kahn said.

He said the IMF will lend four times more this year than last as it helps countries deal with the global crisis.

Strauss-Kahn also said the Group of 20 of the world's biggest economies, which has taken the lead in co-ordinating policy to revive the global economy, would have a broader reach if it included a few new members.

"We could add two or three countries," he said.

He did not name any countries that he believes should be added but said that, for example, Scandinavian countries did not have a seat at the G20, nor did African states.

Asked if he was concerned about other countries imposing a tax on capital inflows as Brazil has done, he said: "No, I'm not afraid and it's not that important. I am not sure if it's that effective or manageable." – TradeArabia News Service