The Saudi Arabian and United Arab Emirates economies will narrowly avoid contracting in 2009 while Kuwait shrinks as the Gulf is dealt a double blow from oil output cuts and weak consumer demand, a Reuters poll showed.

Real economic growth in all Gulf oil exporters except Qatar is set to slow to about 2 per cent or less, marking an abrupt end to a boom that saw most Gulf economies expand 6 per cent or more in 2008, according to the poll of 14 economists and analysts.

Gross domestic product (GDP) at constant prices in Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, would advance just 0.3 per cent in 2009, its slowest pace since 2002 and a drop from 4.2 per cent last year, according to median forecasts for the poll.

At zero per cent, the UAE's GDP would display its weakest performance since 1993 after surging 6.8 per cent in 2008 while Kuwait's economy will shrink 1 per cent, its first contraction since the late 1990s.

"Nowhere is decoupled from the global economy and nowhere is immune," said Monica Malik, regional economist at EFG-Hermes, who took part in the March 9 to 19 poll.

"The slowdown in the headline figures reflects oil. But you're also going to see because of the global crisis a slowdown of private consumption and a slowdown of investments."

Kuwait's economy, the most reliant in the region on oil, grew about 5.9 percent last year, when crude prices rallied to a peak above $147 a barrel before slumping by about $100 a barrel as the global financial crisis deepened.

The downturn in prices could slash Gulf hydrocarbon export revenues by 56.5 per cent this year to $248.9 billion, the median of five forecasts showed. Analysts expect oil prices to average $45.2 a barrel this year, down from almost $100 last year.

A decline in commodity prices could also push down inflation to single-digit levels across the Gulf, where most states peg their currencies to the US dollar, which has strengthened in recent months, driving down import costs, the poll showed.

Real GDP growth is seen resuming across the Gulf in 2010, with Saudi Arabia's economy expanding 3.3 percent and the UAE's growing 3 percent, the poll showed.-Reuters