Global merchandise trade turned upwards in the first half of 2024 with a 2.3% year-on-year increase, which should be followed by further moderate expansion in the rest of the year and in 2025, according to Global Trade Outlook for October.

 

The rebound comes on the heels of a slump in 2023 driven by high inflation and rising interest rates, it noted.

 

WTO economists now anticipate that the volume of world merchandise trade will increase by 2.7% in 2024 and 3.0% in 2025, while global GDP growth at market exchange rates is expected to remain at 2.7% in both years. 

 

Declining inflationary pressure has allowed central banks in advanced economies to begin cutting interest rates, which should stimulate consumption, boost investment and support a gradual recovery of global trade. However, significant downside risks remain, including regional conflicts, geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty.

 

The revised trade forecast is consistent with the WTO’s Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report issued in April, which predicted 2.6% growth in both merchandise trade and GDP in 2024, followed by trade growth of 3.3% and GDP growth of 2.7% in 2025.

 

Asia’s exports will grow faster than those of any other region this year, rising by as much as 7.4%. It will be followed by the Middle East (4.7%), South America1 (4.6%), the CIS region (4.5%), Africa (2.5%), North America (2.1%) and Europe (-1.4%). 

 

On the import side, the fastest growing region will be the Middle East (9.0%) followed by South America (5.6%), Asia (4.3%), North America (3.3%), the CIS region (1.1%), Africa (1.0%) and Europe (-2.3%).