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ANALYSIS

Economies moving 'back to reality', says expert

DUBAI, February 2, 2020

Global economies are expected to come back to the reality of fundamentals, following a spectacular 2019, propelled by monetary easing meeting excessive pessimism, an industry expert said.

Speaking at a media briefing about Emirates NBD's global investment outlook themed, “Back to Reality”, Maurice Gravier, chief investment officer, Emirates NBD Group, noted that the global economic backdrop is resilient, with growth expected to be close to that of last year, while inflation remains subdued.

"The effects of last year’s rate cuts will be felt, supporting consumer spending, helping manage the enormous amounts of debt in the system, and providing oxygen to other central banks especially in emerging economies," he said.

On the flip side however, valuations are “too elevated, especially in developed markets, to expect any further expansion,” he noted. “In terms of positioning among the global investors’ community, the excessive pessimism of last year has been replaced by a tepid neutrality, which is less favourable for markets.”

“To put it short: the fundamental scenario is benign but it is fully priced-in, which limits upside potential, and creates vulnerabilities to any negative surprise,” Gravier concluded at the briefing, adding that Emirates NBD expects its allocations to deliver single digit performances in 2020, close to their long-term expected returns and to the nominal global GDP growth.

The annual Emirates NBD CIO Outlook is an advisory blueprint covering investment opportunities and key global economic indicators and in-depth financial market insights, based on which Emirates NBD’s team of advisors, strategists and analysts make recommendations on financial transactions and investments to the bank’s qualified clients. - TradeArabia News Service

 




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