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Global economy on recovery, but ‘risks remain’

Dubai, January 13, 2013

The outlook for the global economy is improving, but investors continue to face visible uncertainties, including the resolution of the US ‘fiscal cliff’, the ongoing euro crisis, and a rebalancing of the Chinese economy, a report said.

Barclays revealed its January 2013 edition of “Compass”, a monthly flagship of Wealth and Investment Management research dedicated to providing investment advice and recommendation to investors across the region.

Nonetheless, Barclays regional strategists believe that investors’ portfolios should be positioned with a unifying theme in mind: the overall outlook for the global economy and for risk assets which is slowly but gradually improving.

Kevin Gardiner, head of Investment Strategy EMEA, for the Wealth and Investment Management division at Barclays, said: “As the cloud begins to lift in 2013, we continue to favour equities and high-yield credit, and recommend smaller than usual positions in cash and especially developed government bonds. We do not expect a major government to default on its obligations, but bonds look very expensive.”

Despite a likely tumultuous start to the year, the opportunity set in 2013 for investors looks compelling. Gardiner recommends that investors’ should focus particularly on small and mid-cap US stocks, as earnings continue to grow faster, the report said.

With a supportive environment – including the on-going measures by The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan, investors should be overweight on Developed Market Equities.

According to Barclays, the Euro zone economy is likely to remain laggard in 2013. The sheer uncertainty surrounding the single currency is affecting business and consumer confidence, particularly in countries undergoing the most stringent fiscal retrenchment.

“Although the immediate fortunes of Asia’s economies continue to ebb and flow – buffeted by the global economic tide – the region’s overall growth story remains intact,” Gardiner said.

“China, India and Indonesia have intensified efforts to restructure their economies, shifting from investment-led expansion to a more consumption-driven growth model, and we believe these efforts will begin to bear fruit in 2013 and beyond. Despite divergent strategies, Asian economies are well-positioned to capitalize on improvements on the horizon for the global economy”, he concluded. – TradeArabia News Service




Tags: investment | Barclays | bonds | Euro zone | Global economy | Fiscal Cliff |

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