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Hike in cash holdings over weaker global economy

DUBAI, July 15, 2015

Global investors have raised their holdings of cash significantly in response to a weaker global economic outlook, particularly in China, according to the Bank of America (BofA) Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey for July.

Overall, equity allocations are unaffected by the higher risk aversion, however, said the study.

Key findings of the survey:

•    Confidence in the global economy falls sharply: 42per cent of investors expect strengthening over next year, down from 55 per cent a month ago.

•    China heads concerns: net 62 per cent expect economy to weaken in next 12 months, eight out of 10 see GDP below 6 per cent by 2018.

•    Cash levels soar to highest level since 2008 crisis – 5.5 per cent of portfolios; gold judged undervalued for first time in five years.

•    Increased pessimism on China led further weakness in assets linked to China: Commodity allocation drops to six-month low, and Global Emerging Market equities stays as most unloved region with allocations at 16-month low.

•    Bonds still seen as much more over-valued than equities and more at risk of volatility-driven crash; equity overweights rise to net 42 per cent.

•    US dollar bullishness strengthens despite postponing of expected US rate rise to Q4 2015 or later, replacing June consensus of Q3.

•    Appetite to overweight European stocks rises although potential Eurozone breakdown now biggest “tail risk.”

“Rising risk aversion and stretched cash levels provide a contrarian buy signal for risk assets in Q3,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.

“Despite the Greek news flow, intention to own European assets is high and rising, though global growth remains vitally important for European stocks,” said Manish Kabra, European equity strategist. – TradeArabia News Service




Tags: Merrill Lynch | Bank of America | Global economy |

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